Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 11.875880 13.326465 14.983661 17.039862 19.555572 22.578235 2.655651e+01
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 10.044449 11.803565 13.966859 16.890162 20.850535 26.215458 3.440209e+01
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 8.916135 10.802410 13.240671 16.741323 21.860873 29.497352 4.276449e+01
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 8.167503 10.133208 12.776401 16.764503 22.991826 33.128042 5.313100e+01
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 7.648874 9.684469 12.516947 16.984639 24.398627 37.543436 6.724250e+01
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 7.028414 9.019999 11.855822 16.467764 24.459817 39.560481 7.759113e+01
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 6.638054 8.638904 11.557226 16.460439 25.369402 43.468673 9.554624e+01
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 6.184896 8.125563 11.002863 15.947571 25.239535 45.155006 1.088516e+02
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 5.717788 7.557480 10.313998 15.121353 24.358970 44.892739 1.157601e+02
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.337411 7.095041 9.755010 14.459582 23.696811 44.982631 1.244719e+02
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 5.471409 7.417040 10.465205 16.130914 28.165309 60.008692 2.276834e+02
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.402815 7.418092 10.648196 16.857192 30.796239 71.749773 3.681939e+02
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.058751 6.977755 10.079147 16.114997 29.951183 72.314046 4.266109e+02
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.845063 6.734431 9.830521 15.983400 30.602905 78.769209 6.186415e+02
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.650609 6.509606 9.594973 15.847078 31.217514 85.682106 9.544712e+02
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.496901 6.341587 9.445226 15.868472 32.267223 95.499479 1.812071e+03
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.381319 6.229092 9.384797 16.070989 33.891869 109.976803 5.661106e+03
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.183172 5.967486 9.033865 15.595321 33.409387 113.016961 1.209961e+04
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.061066 5.828234 8.899184 15.588575 34.374216 125.952862 1.340117e+06
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 3.888655 5.595173 8.574946 15.115968 33.759477 128.322764 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 3.690381 5.310493 8.139996 14.353287 32.074456 122.121320 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 3.521338 5.070653 7.779902 13.741204 30.810520 118.475045 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 3.618943 5.294375 8.312439 15.284989 37.288863 188.126123 NaN